Outcome of the inevitable vote on "New City"

With the first of 2 public hearings now scheduled for June, today's post focuses on what happens after the inevitable: the MAC puts the issue of a "new city" to a vote of the residents.

Though the vote is well over a half-year away (I think the goal is to put it on a ballot people actually turn out to vote for: the November general election), the battle lines have been drawn for years: the condos at the extreme south end of the study area will be against it (though they would seem to benefit most from it).  The single-family homeowners at the extreme north end (who historically accounted for 100% of the seats on the MAC) will generally be in favor.  There are exceptions, but that's generally how it's going to go down, and the issue will become: who will do a better job mobilizing.

Up until now, the most visible position has been staked out by the "NO" forces (witness the lawn signs and all the prior coverage on this blog).  But the "YES" side has recently come to life, and set up a webpage and (and lawn signs of their own, of course) at www.yestocity.com (catchy).

Today we look at the outcome of a "yes" or a "no" vote, and the practical implications that will result either way.

"NO wins"
The decision to incorporate will be by a simple majority, and the condominiums (though they don't occupy much geography in the study area) are densely populated.  It is entirely possible that given their density, they will be better situated to get their elderly voters to the polls, effectively killing the dream of a new city.

If they succeed, the entire study area will remain part of unincorporated Miami-Dade, taxes will stay the same, but only until other UMSA areas incorporate and leave, at which time tax hikes will begin.  The "haves" will bemoan the fact that our parks stink, that they are under-policed, and that they have little control over their own destiny.

In the event of a "No" result, members of "CIND" (the current pro-city people) may attempt to incorporate an even smaller city, perhaps as small as Highland Lakes (there is precedent for this: the City of Medley has about 842 residents! - source).  It will have an unpaid mayor and commission, but will still have to pay for a city manager and pay legal fees.  It will basically be the current homeowner's association, but with official titles.  But the 2015 PMG report which defines 15,000 residents as the minimum to be "viable" may impede the progress of even this scaled-back attempt to form a city.

"YES wins"
If a new city wins the day, expect the bitter NO-army to become a thorn in the side of the new city government: fighting every tax increase, writing letters to the Herald and protesting a lot.  Like the "tea-party," but at the local level.

The good news is that it will be hard for there to be any small-city corruption with that level of scrutiny.  The bad news is it will suck to live in the whirlwind.  If you think lawn-signs are an eyesore, put your seatbelt on in the post-incorporation world.

The first battle where everybody loses will be choosing a new name for the city.  West Aventura will probably invite a lawsuit from our deep-pocketed neighbor.  I say bring it on - there are some crappy rental apartments west of I-95 and in no way part of Aventura that are named "Aventura apartments," so good luck telling us we can't share the name too.  Aventura also lost a lot of credibility when it promoted the construction of the K-8 school on West Dixie Highway (ie: on our side), and then saw it named "AVENTURA Waterways."

The other big difference we will see is that there will be lots of new police cars.  The question is: will we get a force of well-vetted and respectful officers, or will be get rejects from other local police forces, of which there are so, so very many.  If you'd like to listen to a very scary report on what this could look like, listen to the 2014 podcast of "this American Life" that investigated neighboring Miami Gardens, which you can find here.

***

So it seems like whoever wins, "no" or "yes", things will largely remain the same.  That's why I support the result of the Nextdoor Poll #4 "third way" which is annexation.  Aventura has no interest in absorbing our area, but an effort should be made to force them to take us nonetheless: it was a mistake to allow Aventura to create such a tiny city encircling one of the largest retail mall operations in the country, and capture the tax base of that mall and very expensive condominiums, while leaving the rest of us to suck wind and debate our own incorporation for the subsequent 22 years.

Maybe West Aventura should incorporate and annex AVENTURA!  Problem solved.  Oh, and if you ever hear the idea of incorporating, and then merging with Aventura, that was my "Mergers and Acquisitions Law" solution from 2012, so if someone else says it was their idea, don't believe it.

County Report on Annexation/Incorporation Finally Released

This important and long-awaited report can be found online at: http://www.miamidade.gov/mayor-memo/2015-10-27-Report-MDC-Incorporation-Annexation.pdf

The most applicable recommendations made are #9 (minimum size of 15,000 makes us just barely "feasible" in PMG's eyes), #14 (no cherry picking - like Aventura did), and #15 (no enclaves means that the county would not allow our area to incorporate without including the Miami Gardens condos, who seem to be dead-set against incorporating, making passage very difficult.

In this first chart, the consultant evaluates the financial impact to the county of various areas incorporating as new cities.  Our area is the first on the list, and if we "left" the county by forming a new city, the county would lose $2,094,498 in revenue.

But if we DON'T leave, and other unincorporated areas DO leave, then our tax bills will go up, and the extent of these increases is reflected in this next table:

The last page of the report that I'll highlight here is PMG's assessment of the viability (to become a city) for several currently unincorporated areas (we are the first one listed: "Northeast"). 

So our area has the apparent blessing of PMG to become a city (and on page 8-11 of the report PMG recommends that the County permit a referendum) but note the "N/A" in the "Public Support" column - this refers to all those "NO to incorporation signs" that have now sat for years on the lawns of our community  

So opposition is strong, and the MAC is playing a dangerous game if it negotiates away rights to Ives Dairy Road and concedes a multi-million dollar mitigation payment to the county that may not even become necessary.  Regardless, the NE MAC already has a budget, it will schedule 2 public meetings very soon (if it hasn't already), and a vote remains possible in 2016.

A New High School West of Aventura?

On a torrentially rainy December 3rd, MDCPS (that's Miami-Dade County Public Schools) held a town hall meeting on "21st Century Schools" which discussed local applications of some of the $1.2B in bonds that were approved by voters in the last general election.

Those of us with children in the local elementary school (including the author) and the local middle school (including the author) will welcome the allocation of monies to those existing institutions.

In the case of the elementary school (Highland Oaks Elementary, a.k.a. Virginia A. Boone Highland Oaks Elementary, a.k.a. VABHOE, a.k.a. "the school with so many names I can never find it on a list"), is to receive $4.7M in funding towards planning and design of an addition that will seat 264 students.  Bond funds have already been spent in 2014/15 at VABHOE to improve HVAC, replace windows and perform general maintenance.  That's the good news.

The bad news is that funds were also used in 2014/15 to erect a series of perplexing chain link fences, ostensively to make the school 'safer', though they seem to have caused far more harm than good (trapping students IN during an emergency), they make the school look like a prison, and as an added bonus: are ugly as hell.


But the real bombshell news in the presentation was the announced (conceptual) 500-seat high school, to be constructed on lands west of the existing middle school (Highland Oaks Middle, or "HOM").  Unlike the other listed improvements, the secondary facility is "in planning," meaning there's little guidance on timetable, and those of us with kids in the pipeline are left to wonder whether action will be taken before the clock runs out, and we have to start schlepping our then-adolescents west of I-95 (which would be "west of west of Aventura"):



One of the most welcome revelations from this site plan is that HOM would, at very long last, have a proper DROP OFF AREA along the south edge of the property.  Currently, HOM parents drop off students by simply stopping their car in the middle of the street, in moving traffic, causing a lot of frustration and endangering motorists and pedestrians alike.  The new plan introduces some sanity to the situation, by creating a second opening into the South lot to allow cars to exit (something the author has been advocating for several years (along with a red-light camera at the intersection)).

As far as the high school itself, it would be an iPrep Academy, limited to students in the current Krop High School boundary (which includes Aventura's K-8 charter school, and Waterways K-8, plus of course HOM).  So demand will likely far outstrip supply.




iPrep is a self-directed, technology-driven instructional format that I've followed for many years.  It's often referred to as "the pet project of Superintendent Alberto Carvalho".  It currently exists at only one location in downtown Miami at 1500 Biscayne.  More information about that existing school at https://sites.google.com/site/iprepacademy/



The 1500 Biscayne school boasts a 100% graduation rate, being an "A" school since opening, and having end of course exam results of 90% or above (not really sure what that last one means).



One criticism of the existing iPrep (1500 Biscayne) school cited by students in their reviews on websites like greatschools.org is the lack of extra-curricular activities and sports.  The proposed school addresses this [or would have] by saying "students may participate in sports at their attendance boundary school - Dr. Michael M. Krop HS".

MAY 6, 2016 UPDATE
Though the proposal had the enthusiastic support of Aventura (their city council voted to support the HOM location), the reception was decidedly negative 'west of Aventura.'  The Highland Lake/Skylake HOA voted unanimously (with 2 abstentions) to lobby for the iPrep elsewhere ("not in my backyard"), and formed a committee to oppose it - lawn signs and everything.  

There were some VERY legitimate criticisms of increasing density on Ives dairy road, and when the "traffic study" was conducted without any visible activity, and without community input, I became skeptical of the whole proposal myself.  Reports emerged this week that the iPrep has been steered west of I-95, where it will presumably exist side-by-side with Krop high school, and "not in my backyard."

But all this leaves me to wonder if this was a victory or a loss.  The iPrep @ HOM could have become a 'crown jewel' of the community that would have benefitted school-aged local residents, and had a very positive effect on homeowner property values.  On the other hand, it could have contributed to even worse traffic problems on Ives.

The real victory would have been a new local high school, WITH proper facilities for parking and drop off, but since that was looking increasingly unlikely, it's not all bad news that iPrep is not coming to HOM.

FDOT Public Meeting: Ives Dairy/NE 203rd St. Improvements

On April 24th of this year, I discussed Road Improvements to NE 203rd St: The Biggest Local Issue You've Never Heard Of.

On October 8, a hearing was held to discuss the "Preferred Alternative" selected by the Florida Department of Transportation to upgrade our beloved Ives Dairy Road to accommodate the 100 trains per day that are anticipated to be going by each day in our not-too-distant future (which should come as no surprise to readers of this blog - see http://westofaventura.blogspot.com/2014/04/trains.html).

Here is what the FDOT has in mind:

The "Final Design Phase" won't conclude until 2017, and the Right of Way acquisition runs until 2018, so don't expect construction imminently, but the above representation could be how things look like in 5 years.

The winners in all this are Aventura (who was represented by it's mayor and city manager at the meeting), commuters and business in Aventura.

The losers are the businesses shaded in purple in the above graphic, who will have their land expropriated to construct the extension (no big loss, and I'm sure they will be happy to be "bought out").

The other losers are those of us WoA, because improving traffic flow on Ives Dairy further contributes to it becoming an urban highway through an area with 2 schools at NE 24th Avenue, and another 2 schools at NE 26th Avenue.

FDOT had also considered improvements at the NE 215th intersection with US1, but decided to take "NO ACTION" on that road, which separates Miami-Dade and Broward counties, and which has ZERO schools on it.  Some action to connect NE 215th Street could have alleviated some of the tremendous pressure on Ives Dairy and the increasing danger to commuting students.

More information available at http://www.fdotmiamidade.com/ne203-215pde.html

If you'd like to submit on-the-record comments to the Project Director, you can drop her a line at fabiana.gonzalez@dot.state.fl.us

Nextdoor Polling on Annexation/Incorporation

In April, 2015, a series of polls were conducted on neighborhood social media site "nextdoor.com", and since the questions and results are germaine to the scope of this blog, they are reproduced below:

The first poll generated a lot of discussion, which is expected given that it's a bit of a 'hot button' issue giving rise to lawn signs and the like.  It was also familiar territory for discussion.  The second poll explored more untested possibilities, and the direction was much more decisive:

The third poll matched the second as far as being more untested.  In #3, the community did not show NMB the same love as it did for Aventura.

In the "grand finale," annexation by Aventura proved to be 340% more popular than forming a new city "West of Aventura".  Curious since this (clearly more preferable) option has no known or organized support, like the pro-incorporation movement (CIND) or the anti-incorporation movement.  

The only commentary I offer on all this is: I always suspected Aventura would be preferred to the risks and uncertainties of forming a new city, because Aventura is "the devil you know."  The question is: if they don't want us, can the County force them to swallow us anyway?

197th Street Tri-Rail Station

As noted elsewhere in the blog, trains are coming.  The question is: how many, and when.  But a separate question is "will we suffer all of the negatives of increased rail traffic without the benefits of a local station to use ourselves?"

WoA will stay current on all known developments concerning this important issue, which today includes an excerpt from this month's issue of Biscayne Times.  For the full article, click here.

Here is the concluding portion, which discusses our area specifically, and mirrors some of the concerns expressed on this blog that (i) space to house a future station is quickly evaporating to development, (ii) we have little control over what's going on, and (iii) Aventura seems to know a hell of a lot more.

Road Improvements to NE 203rd St: The Biggest Local Issue You've Never Heard Of

A public workshop was held in Hallandale on April 21st, and though it was posted here on the blog, it didn't get much attention elsewhere, and it should have.

As noted in an earlier post about incorporation [here], NE 203rd Street (aka "Ives Dairy Road") is our community's artery, lifeline, and the "face" of our community in many ways.  Well, that "face" is going to be having some plastic surgery, and it could be much more than a nose job.

The Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) cites a purpose of "Improving traffic operations and safety conditions at the intersections of NE 203rd street and/or NE 215th street, and the Florida East Coast Rail Corridor", noting that conflicts will increase due to expanding rail activity:

• Florida East Coast Railroad - 20 freight trains daily
• All Aboard Florida - 32 passenger trains daily
• Ti-Rail Coastal Link - 48 commuter trains daily

Oh, did you not know about 100 trains a day passing through our neighborhood?  For shame - you need to stop now and read the 1-year-old pulitzer-prize candidate (not really) post: http://westofaventura.blogspot.com/2014/04/trains.html

So (100 trains a day) + (an already apocalyptic traffic nightmare on Ives Dairy) = HELP!

So a process was initiated, and we just passed the step highlighted in orange in this picture:

The next step in the process is the Public Hearing, and that is scheduled for October 2015.  The study ends in December 2015.

3 concepts are being studied by FDOT:

1.   "No Build" - maintain existing configuration

This is the status-quo option, which looks like this:

2.  "Concept 1" - Northwest Quadrant Concept

This one would cost $25,000,000.  It looks like this:

As you can see, even $25M doesn't buy you any "A" grades for smooth traffic (the majority of "D" grades indicate a delay of greater than 35-55 seconds per vehicle).  FDOT says there would be a 54% improvement in AM rush hour, a 49% improvement in PM rush hour, and a 70% improvement on weekend traffic.

3.  "Concept 2" - Elevate Westbound NE 203rd Street, and lower US-1 to ground level

ICK! - according to the FDOT, those "F" grades represent a 17% greater delay in AM rush hour, and a 10% greater delay in PM rush hour (but on the weekend it is a 71% improvement, so not a total loss - all the weekend shoppers can rush home from the mall with minimal delay).

For NE 215th Street, there are no fewer than FIVE concepts:

 

I don't want to crash this blog by uploading all the pictures, but the alternatives and their projected impact are summarized in this table:

These changes will have a dramatic impact on our community, lifestyle, commuting and safety.  My hope is that the project will improve a terrible traffic situation, and earmark some funds to improve safety at the school crossings, where ignorant drivers (and moms on cell phones) endanger young pedestrians on a daily basis.  

Sign up to receive email updates on the project at http://www.fdotmiamidade.com/ne203-215pde 

Subscribe to this blog (top right of the page) to get updates on this and other local news.

And send any questions or concerns about the project to fabiana.gonzalez@dot.state.fl.us