With the first of 2 public hearings now scheduled for June, today's post focuses on what happens after the inevitable: the MAC puts the issue of a "new city" to a vote of the residents.
Though the vote is well over a half-year away (I think the goal is to put it on a ballot people actually turn out to vote for: the November general election), the battle lines have been drawn for years: the condos at the extreme south end of the study area will be against it (though they would seem to benefit most from it). The single-family homeowners at the extreme north end (who historically accounted for 100% of the seats on the MAC) will generally be in favor. There are exceptions, but that's generally how it's going to go down, and the issue will become: who will do a better job mobilizing.
Up until now, the most visible position has been staked out by the "NO" forces (witness the lawn signs and all the prior coverage on this blog). But the "YES" side has recently come to life, and set up a webpage and (and lawn signs of their own, of course) at www.yestocity.com (catchy).
Today we look at the outcome of a "yes" or a "no" vote, and the practical implications that will result either way.
"NO wins"
The decision to incorporate will be by a simple majority, and the condominiums (though they don't occupy much geography in the study area) are densely populated. It is entirely possible that given their density, they will be better situated to get their elderly voters to the polls, effectively killing the dream of a new city.
If they succeed, the entire study area will remain part of unincorporated Miami-Dade, taxes will stay the same, but only until other UMSA areas incorporate and leave, at which time tax hikes will begin. The "haves" will bemoan the fact that our parks stink, that they are under-policed, and that they have little control over their own destiny.
In the event of a "No" result, members of "CIND" (the current pro-city people) may attempt to incorporate an even smaller city, perhaps as small as Highland Lakes (there is precedent for this: the City of Medley has about 842 residents! -
source). It will have an unpaid mayor and commission, but will still have to pay for a city manager and pay legal fees. It will basically be the current homeowner's association, but with official titles. But the 2015 PMG report which defines 15,000 residents as the minimum to be "viable" may impede the progress of even this scaled-back attempt to form a city.
"YES wins"
If a new city wins the day, expect the bitter NO-army to become a thorn in the side of the new city government: fighting every tax increase, writing letters to the Herald and protesting a lot. Like the "tea-party," but at the local level.
The good news is that it will be hard for there to be any small-city corruption with that level of scrutiny. The bad news is it will suck to live in the whirlwind. If you think lawn-signs are an eyesore, put your seatbelt on in the post-incorporation world.
The first battle where everybody loses will be choosing a new name for the city. West Aventura will probably invite a lawsuit from our deep-pocketed neighbor. I say bring it on - there are some crappy rental apartments west of I-95 and in no way part of Aventura that are named "Aventura apartments," so good luck telling us we can't share the name too. Aventura also lost a lot of credibility when it promoted the construction of the K-8 school on West Dixie Highway (ie: on our side), and then saw it named "AVENTURA Waterways."
The other big difference we will see is that there will be lots of new police cars. The question is: will we get a force of well-vetted and respectful officers, or will be get rejects from other local police forces, of which there are so, so very many. If you'd like to listen to a very scary report on what this could look like, listen to the 2014 podcast of "this American Life" that investigated neighboring Miami Gardens, which you can find
here.
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So it seems like whoever wins, "no" or "yes", things will largely remain the same. That's why I support the result of the Nextdoor Poll #4 "third way" which is annexation. Aventura has no interest in absorbing our area, but an effort should be made to force them to take us nonetheless: it was a mistake to allow Aventura to create such a tiny city encircling one of the largest retail mall operations in the country, and capture the tax base of that mall and very expensive condominiums, while leaving the rest of us to suck wind and debate our own incorporation for the subsequent 22 years.
Maybe West Aventura should incorporate and annex AVENTURA! Problem solved. Oh, and if you ever hear the idea of incorporating, and then merging with Aventura, that was my "Mergers and Acquisitions Law" solution from 2012, so if someone else says it was their idea, don't believe it.
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